East Coast Storm Chasing

This will be a weekly or bi-weekly discussion of tropical weather in the North Atlantic.

Today we we will discuss the area of interest in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let's start with what the NHC has said about this system so far.

 A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND

WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A

SURFACE TROUGH AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL

CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT..AND

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT

COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE

SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

I think that this is a bit of a conservative forecast, and I would give it a 30-50% chance of development within the next 72 hours, due to somewhat favorable wind shear (about 20 knots and decreasing right now) and ridiculously warm SSTs of 30-31C (85-87F) which are ripe for intensification.  There isn't much steering influence in the area right now, which means that this system is definitely not going anywhere fast.  It has the potential to dump torrential rains up to 15 inches along the Gulf Coast this coming week.

Let's see what the models are saying about this system.  The GFS is currently the only model that wants to close the low over water.  Other models such as the develop-everything CMC refuse to close the low until it is over land.  All of these models have the system make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi, Texas and New Orleans, LA.

This system should be closely monitored for the next 96 hours for possible tropical cyclone development.

Lastly, let's see some satellite imagery of this system.

Ari - Lead Forecaster and Tropical Weather Specialist

DISCLAIMER - PRODUCTS ISSUED BY ECSC SHOULD NOT BE CONSULTED FOR LIFE AND DEATH DECISIONS.  WE ARE JUST AN OPINION.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND/OR YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION.